UNITED STATES   The main event this week is the May/18 jobs report, due out on Friday. US growth is accelerating after the Q1/18 slowdown. The second revision of the Q1/18... read more →

UNITED STATES   The main data this week will be retail sales for April, out on Tuesday. It should show healthy growth, with the “control group” growing 0.4%momsa or 3.6%yoy. The... read more →

UNITED STATES   What did we learn from last week’s FOMC meeting and NFP reading? First, we learned that the economy is doing well, and the FOMC agrees. Indeed, by some... read more →

BRAZIL   IMPORTANT NOTICES: This report is a general discussion of certain economic and geopolitical trends and forecasts.  It does not constitute investment advice of... read more →

UNITED STATES   This week we get the advanced estimate of Q1/18 GDP. The results will disappoint (see below) but they are not a good indication of near-term prospects. On the... read more →

UNITED STATES   The minutes of the FOMC’s March 21st meeting came out last week: The Committee was sanguine on growth and confident on the pickup on inflation. Of note: For... read more →

UNITED STATES   The main event this week is Friday’s payroll report. Although some attenuation is likely, after February’s torrid pace, it still should be a positive reading (see below). Which... read more →

UNITED STATES   This will be Jerome Powell’s first FOMC as chairman. Regarding the rate decision, he made his views clear. “From headwinds to tailwinds” made—and stayed in—the headlines. The “tailwinds”... read more →

UNITED STATES   No shortage of economic and financial headlines last week. Tariffs; and, of course, non-farm payrolls (NFP): 313k in Feb/18—108k above consensus, the fastest pace since July 2016, and... read more →

UNITED STATES   While the jobs report is the focal point of the week, the revised/final productivity numbers for 2017 also merit attention. The dip in productivity in Q4/17 was due,... read more →