UNITED STATES   Aside from the political fireworks of tomorrow’s election in Alabama, and the tax-law in Congress, this week’s attention will be on the FOMC meeting, on Wednesday. With near unanimity in expectations for a 25bp hike to 1.50%, the focus will be on forward-looking statements. There is consensus that the economy is in better shape than last month; in much better shape than last year. Growth is strong and labor conditions continue to improve, as evidenced in last week’s stronger than expected NFP report. At the margin, the unemployment rate dropped further, and is now well-below NAIRU. The latest inflation data is encouraging, with signs that the slump in the earlier part of the year is over. Since the November meeting the three-month annualized growth rate of the core PCE price index has risen from around 1.5% to nearly 2%. Financial conditions eased once again, as they have after each rate increase so far in this cycle. Yellen’s term at the Fed is ending on a high note: The economy is in one of the longest, if shallowest, expansions in the post-WWII era. The coming week’s economic data is likely to reinforce this tone. Much uncertainty remains about the … Continue reading US + Brazil Financial News (12/11)