UNITED STATES   There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of the last two major hurricanes on the economy. The tragedy on individuals and families may take years to heal, and economic statistics silence and miss the suffering. What forecasters know is that major natural disasters cause temporary slowdowns in most major growth indicators. There are large declines in economic activity, but also sharper subsequent rebounds. The emerging consensus is that the twin hurricanes could reduce Q3/17 GDP growth by as much as 1 percentage point. Q3/17 GDP tracking estimates are down by 0.6-0.8pp to around +2.0%. Conversely, given the recovery effort, growth in the following two-to-three quarters should be somewhat stronger than previously expected; perhaps as much as 0.2-0.4pp in Q4/17-Q2/18. On balance 2017 growth could be marginally down (to 2.3%) and 2018, up (to 2.6%). In the event, the impact on monetary policy is likely to be small. However, this, low inflation, and pending departures from the FOMC (with Stanley Fischer gone in October, four of the seven Fed-Board chairs will be vacant) make a hike in December harder to deliver.  The week is full of new data. On Thursday, we get August’s reading of the CPI. Possibly, part … Continue reading US + Brazil Financial News (9/11)