US + Brazil Financial News (9/04)

UNITED STATES   So, last week’s NFP disappointed. Not only the headline (156k). There were downward revisions to previous months; unemployment increased a notch to 4.4%; and average hourly earnings increased only +0.1%momsa (2.5%yoy). For all this, the report says little about the labor market, which continues in full employment. 156k is more than enough to absorb new entrants into the labor force, and the variation in the unemployment rate is insignificant. It says little about the broader economy that showed vibrant growth in Q2/17, revised up to 3%saar. (The aftermath of Hurricane Harvey may disrupt the seasonality of growth in the quarters ahead, yet, even so, the economy is likely to grow 2.7-2.8% in Q3-Q4/17.) And it adds little to what we know about the outlook for monetary policy. In this regard, the most relevant events this week are several speeches by Fed-speakers, starting tomorrow morning with Leal Brainard. Minneapolis’ Kashkari speaks in the afternoon, and Dallas’ Kaplan, in the evening. Dudley speaks on Thursday and Philly’s Harker on Friday.  Brainard is more relevant for being a close follower of Yellen than for her own independent thoughts. Kashkari focuses on financial issues and could say something about the interplay of … Continue reading US + Brazil Financial News (9/04)