UNITED STATES   A very busy data week ahead, with PCE data out already. The headline deflator came in on target, a high figure of 0.40%momsa—still reflecting hurricane-related seasonality. Core-PCE was only 0.10%momsa (1.30%yoy) thus below the rate that would be consistent with the Fed’s forecast for yoy inflation at end-2017. The surprise came on the other indicators of personal consumption. Spending grew 0.60%momsa in real terms or at 2.40%saar based on the 3-mo average. In part, this is post-hurricanes: a jump in the demand for consumer durables, etc. And this aseasonality is underscored by a flat real disposable income with a significant drawdown in personal savings, to a rate of only 3.1% of disposable income. Nevertheless, the rebound in consumption, taken together with other indicators of household spending, and the positive trend in homebuying and improvements, underscore the key role of positive consumer/household sentiment in sustaining the recovery. Monday, October 30: PCE deflator, Personal Income, Spending – September. (Consensus: PCE deflator 0.4%momsa; Core 0.1%; Income 0.4%; Spending 0.9%; Real spending 0.5%; PCE deflator). Attention will focus on the deflator, even though the quarterly outcome is already known from the Q3 GDP report. If it comes at the consensus (0.4%momsa) it would … Continue reading US + Brazil Financial News (10/30)